There have been many studies and articles about the Probabilities of Success in drug development. (e.g. Benchmarking R&D success rates of leading pharmaceutical companies: an empirical analysis of FDA approvals (2006–2022), Alexander Schumacher et. al)
The overall success rate of clinical development (Clinical Phase I to drug approval), ranging from ~7% to ~25% (of course depending on therapeutic area and other factors).
Fact is that managing a Pharma R&D Project Portfolio and optimizing its success probabilities is a challenge with various influencing factors and variables: e.g. development phase, competition, therapeutic area, clinical development plan quality, clinical trial protocol, …and many more.
In the Pharma R&D Manager Game these probabilities are influencing your potential success (Expert Mode is using the determined success probabilities, Beginner and Advanced Mode are easier).
So put yourself to the test and set the right portfolio priorities to be successful.